Short- and medium-range hydrological ensemble forecasts over France
Prévisions hydrologiques d'ensemble à courte et moyenne échéance sur la France
Thirel, G. ; Regimbeau, F. ; Martin, E. ; Noilhan, J. ; Habets, F.
The Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM) distributed hydro-meteorological modeling suite is developed at Météo-France. Two ensemble forecasts were tested as input to the SIM suite. The first one was the ECMWF EPS (10-day range, 1.5? grid, 51 members). Then, the Météo-France PEARP (60-h range, 0.25? grid, 11 members) was used. The methods for disaggregating the EPSs down to the 8-km Isba grid were described. Statistical analysis of the skills of these systems (for rainfall and streamflows) was performed against observations and showed the interests of using these EPSs. The PEARP-based streamflows showed better scores than the ECMWF ones, for low and high flows. Copyright ??2010 Royal Meteorological Society.
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