The 12-13 november 1999 flash flood in southern France
L'épisode de crue soudaine du 12-13 novembre 1999 dans le Sud de la France
Bechtold, P. ; Bazile, E.
Année de publication
2001
The flash flood that occurred on 1213 November 1999 in meridional <br>France is documented. This event caused 35 fatalities and severe damage <br>to property as rainfall totals locally exceeded 550 mm in 24 h and 620 <br>mm in 48 h.The main issue of the present study is to discuss how <br>realistically the spatial and temporal rainfall distribution of this <br>flash flood event can be represented with present state-of-the-art <br>operational and research modeling frameworks. The predictability of the <br>present event for different forecast ranges is investigated and <br>sensitivity studies are conducted in order to discuss the influence of <br>model physics (convection, microphysics), atmospheric moisture analysis <br>and Mediterranean sea surface temperature forcing on the quality of the <br>results. It is shown that the present event could be reasonably <br>predicted on forecast ranges of 23 days as it was essentially <br>determined by strong moisture advection from the Mediterranean coupled <br>with frontal and orographical lifting. However, precipitation scores <br>show significant sensitivity to both analysis errors and model physics</div>
Accès à la notice sur le site du portail documentaire de Météo-France