Developments in precipitation verification
Rodwell, Mark J. ; Haiden, Thomas ; Richardson, David S.
ECMWF's new strategy places more emphasis on the verification of weather parameters such as precipitation and near-surface wind. This change in emphasis is a result of user requirements and scientific developments. It led to the establishment of an ECMWF Technical Advisory Committee Sub-group on Verification Measures. The Sub-group recommended that some new headline scores be adopted to supplement our established primary headline scores (anomaly correlation of 500 hPa geopotential, and continuous ranked probability score of 850 hPa temperature, see e.g. Richardson et al., 2010). Among these supplementary scores is the newly developed 'SEEPS' score (Rodwell et al., 2010) used for the verification of deterministic precipitation forecasts. Here we explain the SEEPS score, and present examples of how it is being used to monitor and compare deterministic forecast performance, guide development decisions, and assess the spread-error relationship within the Ensemble Prediction System. Finally, we discuss potential future developments.
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