Use of ECMWF's ensemble vertical profiles at the Hungarian Meteorological Service
Ihász, István ; Tajti, Dávid
The Hungarian Meteorological Service has made extensive use of ECMWF's deterministic and ensemble forecasts since 1994 when Hungary became a Co-operating State of ECMWF. Several locally-developed tools have been used operationally to extract information from the ECMWF forecasts. For example, based on data from the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System), these tools are used for clustering EPS members for the Central European domain, deriving a wide range of probability forecasts (among others EPS histograms), displaying several types of the EPS plumes (ECMWF, 2010), and performing ensemble calibration (Ihász et al., 2010).
Deterministic vertical profiles based on the ALADIN/HU limited-area model and ECMWF global model have been used for a long time. In 2009 we started to plan the development of a new tool to visualize the vertical distribution of probabilistic forecasts for temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction. These new products were verified on standard pressure levels and 62 EPS model-level fields for a one-year period (April 2010 to March 2011). Also a few case studies have been performed to prove the usefulness of this new tool in different weather situations. The new visualization tool was implemented for standard pressure levels in May 2011 and it was introduced for 62 EPS model level fields in July 2011. In this article we describe the use of ensemble vertical profiles and the way in which they can be verified. In addition, the usefulness of the ensemble vertical profile is illustrated with three case studied.
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