Multi-model vs. EPS-based ensemble atmospheric dispersion simulations: A quantitative assessment on the ETEX-1 tracer experiment case
Galmarini, S. ; Bonnardot, F. ; Jones, A. ; Potempski, S. ; Robertson, L. ; Martet, M.
Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the ensemble prediction system (EPS)modeling. The multi-model approach relies on model simulations produced by different atmospheric dispersion models using meteorological data from potentially different weather prediction systems. The EPS-based ensemble is generated by running a single atmospheric dispersion model with the ensemble weather prediction members. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using the simulations performed for the ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also evaluated against measurement data. Among the most relevant results is that the multi-model median and the mean of EPS-based ensemble produced the best results, hence we consider a combination of multi-model and EPS-based approaches as an interesting suggestion for further research.
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