Multiscale Convective Organization and the YOTC Virtual Global Field Campaign
Moncrieff, Mitchell W. ; Waliser, Duane E. ; Miller, Martin J. ; Shapiro, Melvyn A. ; Asrar, Ghassem R. ; Caughey, James
Vast improvements in satellite and in-situ measurements, data-assimilation and modeling capabilities provide the means to conduct a virtual global field campaign for multiscale Earth System problems, such as convective organization and its interaction with the large-scale circulation. The YOTC project recognizes that major improvements are needed in how the Tropics are represented in climate models. Tropical convection is organized into multiscale precipitation systems with an underlying chaotic order. These organized systems act as building blocks for meteorological events at the intersection of weather and climate (timescales up to seasonal). These events affect a large percentage of the world's population. Much of the uncertainty associated with weather and climate derives from our incomplete understanding of how meteorological systems on the mesoscale (~1100 km), synoptic scale (~1000 km) and planetary scale (~10000 km) interact with each other. This uncertainty complicates our attempts to predict high-impact phenomena associated with the tropical atmosphere, such as tropical cyclones, the Madden-Julian oscillation, convectively-coupled tropical waves, and the monsoons. These and other phenomena influence the extratropics by migrating out of the Tropics and by the remote effects of planetary waves including those generated by the MJO. The diurnal and seasonal cycles modulate all the above. It will be impossible to accurately predict climate on regional scales or comprehend the variability of the global water cycle in a warmer world without comprehensively addressing tropical convection and its interactions across space and time scales.
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