Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration
Influence anthropique sur les changements multi-décadaires dans l'évapotranspiration globale reconstituée
Douville, H. ; Ribes, A. ; Decharme, B. ; Alkama, R. ; Sheffield, J.
Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle1, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation.Yet,the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain2. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves3 and droughts4, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources5, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway6,7, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades8 and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.
Accès à la notice sur le site du portail documentaire de Météo-France