Seasonal forecasting for Africa: water, health management and capacity building

Dandin, P. ; Céron, J.-P. ; Charon, I. ; Soubeyroux, J.-M. ; Tourre, Y. M. ; Viel, C. ; Vinit, F. ; Bader, J.-C. ; Déqué, M. ; Mounier, F. ; Piedelièvre, J.-P. ; Labbé, L. ; Vignolles, C.

Seasonal forecasting takes advantage of the close and energetic interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ocean - which forms most of the Earth's surface - is a slowly varying-changing component of the Earth system, providing a signal that can be exploited for prediction at seasonal timescales. The tropical ocean belt is the primary source of predictive skill at timescales ranging from weeks to months, with a direct impact in the tropics. This enables high predictive skill for seasonal forecasting in many regions of the world, albeit with very different behaviours.

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