The new MACC-II CO2 forecast
Agustí-Panareda, Anna ; Massart, Sebastien ; Boussetta, Souhail ; Balsamo, Gianpaolo ; Beljaars, Anton ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Engelen, Richard ; Peuch, Vincent-Henri ; Razinger, Miha
A new global atmospheric forecast of CO2 is available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) project. MACC II is funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme and uses the infrastructure of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Monitoring and understanding the current CO2 variability is a prerequisite for climate projection and climate change adaption, since it is the most abundant greenhouse gas with a large human-induced contribution. In this article we present one of the first operational CO2 forecast products that is available in real time. This is important because it opens up the possibility of assimilating CO2 observations in the IFS. It also allows the full interaction of the modelling of vegetation (via biogenic CO2 fluxes), water cycle (via evapotranspiration) and radiation (via atmospheric CO2) within the ECMWF modelling framework. First, we discuss the causes of CO2 variability and describe the configuration of the forecast. Then we show the capability of the forecast to simulate CO2 variability on different spatial and temporal scales by comparing forecasts with observations. The main sources of forecast error are pointed out as well as planned future work to address those issues. Finally, information on how to access the near-real-time CO2 plots and the monitoring of the forecast, as well as the forecast data, is provided for anybody interested in using the CO2 forecast product.
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