Heavy precipitation and thunderstorms: an example of a successful forecast for the south-east of France
Saïx, François ; Roulet, Bernard
In spite of huge improvements in numerical forecasts in the past twenty years, with a continuous gain in resolution, some cases of missed events still arise even in short range forecasts, especially for intense convective phenomena. The forecaster has therefore a crucial role in these cases to improve the numerical forecast and to issue the appropriate alert procedures for Civil Authorities. This article is about such a situation on the 1st of November 2011. The regional forecaster in charge for the South-East of France issued an orange Vigilance for heavy precipitation for the Herault Department, although the amounts of rainfall in the numerical models were far below the usual warning thresholds.
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