Evaluation of ECMWF Forecasts, including 2012–2013 Upgrades
Richardson, D.S. ; Bidlot, J. ; Ferranti, L. ; Haiden, T. ; Hewson, T. ; Janousek, M. ; Prates, F. ; Vitart, F.
Recent changes to the ECMWF forecasting system are summarised in section 2. Verification results of the ECMWF medium-range free atmosphere forecasts are presented in section 3, including, where available, a comparison of ECMWF’s forecast performance with that of other global forecasting centres. Section 4 deals with the verification of ECMWF forecasts of weather parameters and ocean waves, while severe weather events are addressed in section 5. Finally, section 6 provides insights into the performance of monthly and seasonal forecast products. At its 42nd Session (October 2010), the Technical Advisory Committee endorsed a set of two primary and four supplementary headline scores to monitor trends in overall performance of the operational forecasting system. These new headline scores are included in the current report. As in previous reports a wide range of complementary verification results is included and, to aid comparison from year to year, the set of additional verification scores shown here is mainly consistent with that of previous years (ECMWF Tech. Memos. 346, 414, 432, 463, 501, 504, 547, 578, 606, 635, 654, 688). A short technical note describing the scores used in this report is given in the annex to this document.
Accès à la notice sur le site du portail documentaire de Météo-France