A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales
Guemas, Virginie ; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward ; Chevallier, Matthieu ; Day, Jonathan J. ; Déqué, Michel ; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. ; Fučkar, Neven ; Germe, Agathe ; Hawkins, Ed ; Keeley, Sarah ; Koenigk, Torben ; Salas y Mélia, David ; Tietsche, Steffen
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the earth's energy and water budget and substantially impacts local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea ice predictability on these timescales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.
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