Ecological and economical impacts of climate change on Hungarian forestry practice
Impacts écologiques et économiques du changement climatique sur la gestion de la forêt hongroise
Führer, Erno ; Jagodics, Aniko ; Juhasz, Istvan ; Marosi, Gyorgy ; Horvath, Laszlo ; Aguilar, Enric ; Guijarro, Jose ; Vertachnik, Gregor ; Klancar, Matija
As the result of the predicted climate change, not only the ecological circumstances but the profitability of forested areas will also change in the future in Hungary. The aim of this case study is to evaluate the expected ecological an economical impacts of a climate change scenario (REMO A1B) for three forest regions of Transdanubian Mountains (Bakony) for four climate indicator tree species (beech, hornbeam, sessile oak, and Turkey oak). According to this scenario, precipitation and air temperature increase by 5 percent and 1.3 °C, respectively in the spring months (March to May), while in summer (June to August) the precipitation decreases by 9 percent together with a higher temperature increase of 2.1 °C between the period of 2036 and 2065 compared to reference years (1961-2010). As a result of the forecasted climate change, a drift expected in forest climate classes towards the drier and warmer climate categories in Hungary, resulting in parallel decrease in production capacity of stands. We expect a significant area decrease in good forest yield classes together with an increase in poor categories. Hence, the annual revenues for the four indicator species will be lower by 9.4 percent compared to the reference period. The decrease in yield is caused by decrease of lumbered wood volume and more valuable wood assortments, as well. In case of the predicted climate scenario, the highest decay in production capacity will be expected for Turkey oak (12 percent), while the lowest for beech (7.5 percent).
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