Potential to use seasonal climate forecasts to plan malaria intervention strategies in Africa
Giuseppe, Francesca Di ; Tompkins, Adrian M.
In this article we analyse the potential of an integrated malaria prediction system by identifying regions and months for which climate variability directly translates into significant variability in malaria transmission. Local temperature anomalies are predictable from one to two months ahead, while reliable rainfall forecasts are only available in eastern and southern Africa one month ahead. Nevertheless, the inherent lag between the rainy seasons and the onset of malaria transmission results in there being potential predictability of malaria cases three to four months in advance. This would extend the early warning available from environmental monitoring by one to two months.
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