A report on the development of a wind and pressure forecast for nimrod
Standing R.J.
The Nimrod nowcasting scheme produces forecasts of rainfall, precipitation type, lightning, screen temperature, visibility and cloud cover out to T+6. The temperature, visibility and cloud analyses are produced by using a recursive filter to combine synoptic observations with an existing Unified Model field. The rainfall and cloud forecasts are advection-based. In mid 1999, it was decided to use these techniques to produce a surface wind and pressure analysis and forecast on the Nimrod system. This report discusses some of the problems encountered and their solutions, through which the forecast scheme evolved and presents verification statistics for the current version. A case study is presented, highlighting the merits and snags of each method tried during the evolution of the scheme. The future development of the scheme is discussed and an overview of the Fortran code is provided in an appendix.
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