The use of medium-range ensembles at the Met Office. II: APPLICATIONS FOR MEDIUM-RANGE FORECASTING
Young M.V. ; Carroll E.B.
The term "medium range" is usually taken to refer to forecasts for lead times ranging from about 2 days up to about 10 days ahead. A wide variety of numerical model products are available to the forecaster nowadays, one of the most important of which is the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). This paper will show how forecasters at the Met Office use these products, in particular the EPS, in an operational environment in the production of medium range forecasts for a variety of customers and will illustrate some of the techniques involved. Particular reference will be made to the PREVIN post-processing system for the EPS which is described in the companion paper by Legg et al (2001). PREVIN presents the information in a variety of ways to allow rapid interpretation by forecasters. Forecast products illustrated take the form of synoptic charts (produced primarily via Field Modification software), text guidance and other graphical formats. The probabilistic approach to forecasting is discussed with reference to various examples, in particular the application of the EPS in providing early warnings of severe weather for which risk assessment is increasingly important. A central ...
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