The feasibility of an ensemble low cloud prediction system
Bryden, C.
The simulation of the formation and dissipation of boundary layer stratiform cloud is known to be critically dependent on two main factors: the description of physical processes occurring between the cloud and its environment and the initial and forcing conditions imposed upon the simulation. To investigate the feasibility of addressing these critical uncertainties, the site-specific model system (SSFM) was extended with the latest non-local physical process schemes and an ensemble approach. It was found that unless changes are made to the forcing methodology, it is not feasible at present to ensemble on the physical processes. However that ensembling on initial and forcing data is feasible and could add skill to the forecast, deriving from the improvement in understanding of model biases during periods of low cloud cover.
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