Development of a montain wave turbulence prediction scheme for civil aviation
TURNER, J.
The occurrence of turbulence to aircraft in-flight, is an increasingly expensive and sometimes dangerous hazard to civil aviation. As one of two World Area forecast Centres, the UK Met. Office has a responsibility to forecast significant weather globally for international civil air traffic, including forecasts of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT). One of the main causes of CAT is the effects of mountains on low level flow, which can lead to breaking waves at cruising altitudes and may be responsible for up to 30% of all turbulence encounters over land areas. An objective, global scheme for predicting mountain wave induced turbulence is required, which may be used as an operational tool in the production of turbulence forecasts to aviation customers. This report documents the development of a scheme by which mountain wave turbulence events can be forecast objectively, using parameters from the Unified Model. Selected diagnostics from the gravity wave drag parameterisatio?n, were tested in a regression analysis against an extensive dataset of turbulence and null reports from commercial aircraft. It was found that a combination of gravity wave stress fields displayed skill in prediction of turbulence events, comparable to that of the shear-induced CAT prediction methods currently in use. The ...
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