Decision - Making from Probability Forecasts using Calculations of Forecast Value
Mylne [K.R.]
A method of estimating the economic value of weather forecasts for decision-making is described. The method may be applied equally to either probability forecasts or deterministic forecasts and provides a forecast user with a direct comparison of the value of each in terms of money saved, which is more relevant to users than most standard verification scores. For a user who wishes to use probability forecasts to decide when to take protective action against a weather event, the method identifies the optimum probability threshold for action, thus answering the question of how to use probability forecasts for decision-?making. The system optimises decision-making for any probability forecast system, whatever its quality and therefore removes any need to calibrate the probability forecasts. The method is illustrated using site-specific probability forecasts generated from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and deterministic forecasts from the ECMWF high-resolution global model. It is found that for most forecast events and most users the probability forecasts have greater user value than the deterministic forecasts from a higher resolution model.
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