Improvements in IFS forecasts of heavy precipitation
Forbes, Richard ; Haiden, Thomas ; Magnusson, Linus
Here we evaluate the skill of quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) over Improvements in IFS forecasts of heavy precipitation the last 15 years, with an emphasis on heavy rainfall. The evaluation, which covers both high-resolution forecasts (HRES) and ensemble forecasts (ENS), shows significant improvements in skill over time measured by a number of different metrics and a skill increase equivalent to about one forecast day per decade. Contributing factors include resolution upgrades and changes in data assimilation, ensemble perturbations, and forecast model numerics and physics, including the representation of cloud and precipitation processes. Recent changes to the cloud and precipitation physics in the latest operational cycle (41r1) have led to further improvements, particularly for high-impact precipitation events associated with orography.
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