Effect of climate variability on school attendance: a case study of Zamfara State in the semi-arid zone of Nigeria

Adejuwon, Joseph O.

Année de publication
Climate and school attendance are both characterised by interannual variability. Their covariation points to a cause and effect relationship. The relationship examined in this study is that of school attendance responding to climate from 1970 to 2006 in Zamfara State, Nigeria. Bivariate (Pearson) correlation was employed to explain the relationship. The coefficient of determination explains the extent to which variation in climate brings about variation in school attendance. The standardised anomaly index was used to analyse the interannual variability of rainfall, while pupils' dropout from schools was determined via the use of descriptive statistics. Results show that, for the schools across the study area, (1) attendance varied from 39 to 4880 pupils, (2) dropout varied from 1 to 220 pupils, (3) the pupil dropout percentage ranged from 0.5 to 9.28%, (4) the number of years in which pupil dropout occurred varied from 13 to 37 years, (5) dropout affected WMPS Anka more than other schools, (6) school attendance is low during drought and high when there is enough rain, (7) dropout was highest during the drought years of 1984, 1987 and 1990 at most schools, (8) temperature is not significantly related to school attendance, while rainfall had a significant positive relationship with school attendance for most schools, at p ≤ 0.05, p ≤ 0.01, and (9) the extent to which rainfall significantly determined school attendance varied from 12.18 to 24.60%. These results provide a reliable base for better drought planning in the future.

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