Calibrating forecasts of heavy precipitation in river catchments

Mátrai, Amarilla ; Ihász, István

Année de publication

Ensemble forecasts of severe weather can provide valuable information on the range of possible scenarios and the likelihood of their occurrence. However, to make sure ensemble forecasts are reliable, they need to be well calibrated. We have used a re-forecast-based method called quantile mapping to calibrate ECMWF ensemble forecasts (ENS) of precipitation. High-quality forecasts of heavy precipitation can assist hydrologists in their decision-making. We have therefore investigated re-forecast-based ensemble calibration for 120 extreme events in the catchments of the rivers Danube and Tisza in the period from 2008 to 2013. Although there are limitations when applying the method to extreme events, we found the calibration to be useful for the case of the extreme floods that occurred in May and June 2013 along the Danube.

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