Changing climate shifts timing of European floods
Blöschl, Günter ; Hall, Julia ; Parajka, Juraj ; Perdigão, Rui A. P. ; Merz, Bruno ; Arheimer, Berit ; Aronica, Giuseppe T. ; Bilibashi, Ardian ; Bonacci, Ognjen ; Borga, Marco ; Canjevac, Ivan ; Castellarin, Attilio ; Chirico, Giovanni B. ; Claps, Pierluigi ; Fiala, Károly ; Frolova, Natalia ; Gorbachova, Liudmyla ; Gül, Ali ; Hannaford, Jamie ; Harrigan, Shaun ; Kireeva, Maria ; Kiss, Andrea ; Kjeldsen, Thomas R. ; Kohnová, Silvia ; Koskela, Jarkko J. ; Ledvinka, Ondrej ; Macdonald, Neil ; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria ; Mediero, Luis ; Merz, Ralf ; Molnar, Peter ; Montanari, Alberto ; Murphy, Conor ; Osuch, Marzena ; Ovcharuk, Valeryia ; Radevski, Ivan ; Rogger, Magdalena ; Salinas, José L. ; Sauquet, Eric ; Sraj, Mojca ; Szolgay, Jan ; Viglione, Alberto ; Volpi, Elena ; Wilson, Donna ; Zaimi, Klodian ; Zivkovic, Nenad
A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.
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