25 years of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF

Buizza, Roberto ; Richardson, David

Année de publication
2017
Résumé
This article presents some examples of ensemble-based forecasts and explains their added value; it briefly reviews how we got where we are today, starting from ECMWF's first ensemble forecasts in 1992; it discusses the key characteristics of an ensemble system and the design of the ensembles operational today at ECMWF; it charts the evolution of ensemble forecast quality; and it describes the development of ensemble-based products to meet different user requirements. Finally, it looks to the future to highlight areas where further improvements can be made.

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