Ocean coupling in tropical cyclone forecasts

Mogensen, Kristian S. ; Magnusson, Linus ; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond ; Prates, Fernando

Année de publication
In this article we present key points from ongoing research at ECMWF on the influence of ocean-atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone intensity. We have selected two very different TCs for a case study. For TC Neoguri (2014), the operational forecast made at the time overpredicted the intensity significantly, and tests with the current 9 km (TCo1279) horizontal resolution in HRES lead to even more pronounced overpredictions. However, the forecast improves considerably with ocean-atmosphere coupling. For TC Haiyan (2013), the operational forecast severely underpredicted the intensity, and even with the current operational resolution we are unable to simulate the intensity accurately regardless of whether we use a coupled or an uncoupled model.

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