The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5C rather than 2C

Warren, R. ; Price, J. ; Graham, E. ; Forstenhaeusler, N. ; VanDerWal, J.

Année de publication
2018
Rsum
In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C, whereas earlier aspirations focused on a 2C limit. With current pledges, corresponding to ~3.2C warming, climatically determined geographic range losses of >50% are projected in ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. At 2C, this falls to 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates and at 1.5C, to 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates. When warming is limited to 1.5C as compared with 2C, numbers of species projected to lose >50% of their range are reduced by ~66% in insects and by ~50% in plants and vertebrates.

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