Dynamic sea ice in the IFS
Keeley, Sarah ; Mogensen, Kristian
In November 2016, ECMWF included a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model in ensemble forecasts (ENS) as part of an upgrade of its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS Cycle 43r1). Since the implementation of IFS Cycle 45r1 in June 2018, high-resolution forecasts (HRES) have also benefitted from dynamic coupling between sea ice, the ocean and the atmosphere.
<br>Here we show why the assumption of persistence of sea ice concentration is not suitable for medium-range forecasts; we describe the sea ice model used at ECMWF; and we present some regional case studies that illustrate how the model is able to capture relatively rapid changes in sea ice concentration. Verification results show that using the dynamic sea ice model generally improves sea ice predictions, which in turn has repercussions on local 2-metre temperature forecasts. The impact on large-scale atmospheric forecast performance is mostly neutral.
Accès à la notice sur le site du portail documentaire de Météo-France