Using ECMWF's new ensemble vertical profiles
Sahin, Cihan ; Hewson, Tim ; Lamy-Thépaut, Sylvie ; Tsonevsky, Ivan ; Modigliani, Umberto ; Richardson, David
ECMWF has developed a new product to show the vertical structure of the atmosphere at a point in ensemble forecasts (ENS). In June 2018, the new product was incorporated into ECMWF's web-based chart-viewing applications, which include ecCharts, clickable web charts and the Dashboard, to use and assess. Users can now examine vertical profiles of the atmosphere anywhere across the globe, at 6-hour intervals, up to a lead time of 120 hours. These can provide considerable assistance with many forecasting challenges, such as predicting cloud layers, layers of instability, precipitation type, wind gust penetration to the surface, propensity for supercells to develop, etc.
The history of this initiative is that ECMWF forecast users have for many years been asking to see vertical profiles of the atmosphere at points, in various different formats. Ihász & Tajti (2011) demonstrated ways of doing this for the ENS over Hungary, but for ECMWF, whose products cover the globe, 'big data' challenges had precluded progress until now. The new products are designed to address the various user requirements, and they were demonstrated for the first time at ECMWF's user meeting (UEF) in June 2018. Initial feedback was very positive, and monitoring statistics collated since then have shown substantial uptake, but ECMWF would very much welcome further feedback and requests for changes from users. These will be used to shape future improvements.
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