Using NWP ensembles in nuclear test verification
De Meutter, Pieter ; Delcloo, Andy ; Camps, Johan ; Termonia, Piet
Atmospheric transport and dispersion models are used as part of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Nuclear weapon tests result in a radionuclide signature that is transported and dispersed in the atmosphere. Eighty stations equipped with very sensitive detectors are or will be monitoring these radionuclides globally.
If radionuclides are detected, atmospheric transport and dispersion models are used to locate possible source regions and the associated release period. This process is called inverse atmospheric transport modelling. Radionuclides measured by the monitoring stations may also come from certain civilian nuclear facilities. To estimate the contribution from these civilian sources to the measurements made at detection stations, once again atmospheric transport and dispersion models can be used. This process is called direct atmospheric transport modelling.<br>In order to have more confidence in the analysis of the signatures of nuclear weapon tests, it is useful to be able to quantify uncertainties. To quantify the uncertainty arising from the use of meteorological data, the ensemble method can be used. The Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK?CEN) is currently collaborating with the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) and Ghent University to use ECMWF's Ensemble of Data Assimilations to tackle this problem.
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