The relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of bacillary dysentery in Hunan Province, China
Li, Xuewen ; Wang, Ning ; Ding, Guoyong ; Li, Xiaomei ; Xue, Xiaojia
Meteorological factors are known to influence the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in humans in a number of different regions. To investigate the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of this disease in the Hunan Province of China, Xiangxi, the region with the highest annual average incidence of bacillary dysentery in the Hunan province from 2005 to 2010 (44.07 cases per 100 000 people) was selected as the area of study, based on spatial descriptive analysis. Spearman correlation analysis showed that average temperature (without lag), relative humidity (with a 1-month lag), rainfall (with a 2-month lag), hours of sunshine (without lag), and air pressure (with a 2-month lag) were all significantly correlated with the number of dysentery cases in Xiangxi. Multivariate analysis showed that average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and hours of sunshine appeared to increase the incidence of dysentery cases in Xiangxi (0.05-2.72%). Multivariate Poisson regression showed no correlation between air pressure and bacillary dysentery incidence. Average temperature was found to be the most important of the meteorological factors considered (it was found that a 1 degC rise in temperature corresponds to a 2.72% increase in the number of cases of bacillary dysentery).
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