Arctic weather forecasting - in the high Arctic
Tjernström, Michael ; Svensson, Gunilla ; Magnusson, Linus
In spring 2018, scientists from several nations and a number of different projects were getting instruments and systems ready for the Arctic Ocean 2018 (AO2018) expedition on the Swedish research icebreaker Oden. Oden was heading for the high Arctic during August and September. The main goal was to investigate the formation and life cycle of low-level Arctic clouds (Box A). One of the projects participating in this expedition was Arctic Climate Across Scales (ACAS), funded by the Swedish Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). One of the aims of this project is to increase the amount of meteorological observations from the sparsely observed central Arctic Ocean (Box B). The idea is to help advance numerical weather prediction and climate modelling by developing a quasi-unattended meteorological observatory on Oden. The need for minimal human intervention stems from the fact that the primary limitation for participating in icebreaker-based research is the limited number of berths on board the icebreakers that are used as platforms. As a contribution to YOPP, and in collaboration with the EU-funded Horizon 2020 project APPLICATE, we have begun to evaluate ECMWF operational forecasts in the Arctic using these observations from ACAS. Initial findings suggest that wind forecasts are of high quality but that there are some issues with cloudiness and temperature forecasts.</p>
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