Towards sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts for EFAS
Wetterhall, Fredrik
ECMWF is currently developing a sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrometeorological forecasting system for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to complement the existing seasonal hydrometeorological forecasts that have been produced operationally since December 2016. The work on EFAS-S2S is part of ECMWF's role as the computational centre for EFAS, the early warning system for floods of the European Commission's Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). The new system will use ECMWF extended-range forecasts, which are issued every Monday and Thursday with a lead time of up to 46 days. As expected, tests have shown that forecast skill is comparable to that of seasonal forecasts when the forecasts are initialised at the same time. The advantage of EFAS-S2S compared to seasonal forecasts lies in the more frequent updates of the hydrological and meteorological initial conditions. The new system is planned to be made operational later this year.</p>
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