Use of super-site observations to evaluate near-surface temperature forecasts
Schmederer, Polly ; Sandu, Irina ; Haiden, Thomas ; Beljaars, Anton ; Leutbecher, Martin ; Becker, Claudia
Systematic forecast errors in temperature and humidity near the surface can be better understood by also examining errors higher up in the atmospheric boundary layer and in the soil. Meteorological observatories, also known as super-sites, provide long-term observational records of such vertical profiles and of surface energy budget components, such as surface radiative fluxes. Those datasets thus constitute an invaluable resource for ECMWF's efforts to further reduce forecast errors in near-surface weather parameters. Initial findings for 2-metre temperature errors in ECMWF forecasts at two European super-sites suggest that the errors are partly the result of the model exchanging too much energy between the atmosphere and the land. However, the influence of other factors, such as errors resulting from the representation of vegetation in semi-arid areas and from small-scale variations in vegetation and soil type near measurement stations, mean that it is difficult to adjust the energy exchange in a way which leads to an overall error reduction on the European scale.</p>
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