Valuable, not just skillful: Enhancing seasonal outlooks of sea ice and hurricanes
Caron, Louis-Philippe ; Massonnet, François ; Klotzbach, Philip J. ; Philp, Tom J. ; Stroeve, Julienne
Making Seasonal Outlooks of Arctic Sea Ice and Atlantic Hurricanes Valuable? Not Just Skillful
In recent years, a big effort has been made by part of the climate community toward the development of climate services in order to make climate information decision oriented. In a climate forecasting context, this means identifying climate variables, thresholds and/or events of relevance to users. Once identified, these elements, which generally do not coincide with variables typically forecasted by the scientific community, are analyzed to determine whether they can be predicted both reliably and skillfully at the appropriate time scale. This process generally requires a sustained dialogue between the different parties involved before coming to a fruitful conclusion. Here, we discuss two such efforts that attempt to bridge the gap between climate forecasting and application for two phenomena already receiving a fair amount of attention from the general public: hurricanes and Arctic sea ice.</p>
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