Fast-Forward to Perturbed Equilibrium Climate

Saint-Martin, David ; Geoffroy, Olivier ; Watson, Laura ; Douville, Hervé ; Bellon, Gilles ; Voldoire, Aurore ; Cattiaux, Julien ; Decharme, Bertrand ; Ribes, Aurélien

Année de publication
2019
Résumé
<p align=justify>The equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the global-mean surface-air temperature change in response to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration is a widely used metric in climate change studies. Its exact value is rarely known because its estimation requires a long integration time of several thousand years. We propose a method to estimate an accurate value of the equilibrium response from fully coupled climate models at a reasonable computational cost. Using this method, our state-of-the-art climate model CNRM-CM6-1 reaches a stationary state after only few hundred of years of integration. This 'Fast-Forward' method consists of an optimal two-step forcing pathway designed using the framework of a two-layer energy balance model. It can be applied easily to any coupled climate model.</p>
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