When People Think They Know; The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Weather
Nunley, Christopher ; Sherman-Morris, Kathleen
What People Know about the Weather
Recent social science research has provided a better understanding of risk communication and decision-making. However, less is understood about the public's actual weather knowledge, how they assess their weather knowledge, and how knowledge may relate to weather forecast information use. The objective of this study was to gain a better understanding of self-perceived and assessed weather knowledge of participants. Psychology literature indicates some people are prone to overestimating their knowledge, which is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect (DKE), but this has yet to be studied in a meteorological context. This study compared participants' assessed weather knowledge with their self-perceived weather knowledge, and results indicate participants with the lowest assessed weather knowledge do overestimate their weather knowledge, a result consistent with previous psychological studies. Participants who obtained a weather forecast more frequently exhibited higher perceived and assessed weather knowledge. Higher perceived and assessed weather knowledge was also observed among users of a specialty weather website compared to a more general audience. The study raises interesting questions about how users of different weather sources acquire or (add to) their weather knowledge and is the first study to explore DKE in the context of weather communication.</p>
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