A gentleman from Hampstead: statistical weather forecasting in 1750s London
Tinkler, Keith J.
The London Chronicle published between 1758 and 1763 contains a weather record of daily data for temperature, pressure and wind direction published every fortnight and a temperature forecast for the coming fortnight, together with summary statistics of pressure and temperature (1762 excepted). Comparisons with contemporary daily records in Gentleman's and Universal Magazines show that the data are statistically sound within the context of the period. The average temperature forecast for the forthcoming fortnight was made by averaging the mean of all previous corresponding fortnights. It is believed to be the first time a statistical method was used to forecast future temperature. A comparison of the London and Hampstead data with the Central England Temperature record (CET) demonstrates that London was very slightly warmer than CET by 0.15°C, primarily during the October to April period, which suggests domestic and commercial heating. In contrast, Hampstead was systematically cooler by 0.85°C. The contributor is styled as a gentleman from Hampstead and is tentatively identified as Francis Bateman, who died in Hampstead on 23 June 1764, and who may have been born in Clerkenwell (Central London) in 1697. Nothing else is known about him.</p>
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