Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Coppola, Erika ; Nogherotto, Rita ; Ciarlo', James M. ; Giorgi, Filippo ; Meijgaard, Erik van ; Kadygrov, Nikolay ; Iles, Carley ; Corre, Lola ; Sandstad, Marit ; Somot, Samuel ; Nabat, Pierre ; Vautard, Robert ; Levavasseur, Guillaume ; Schwingshackl, Clemens ; Sillmann, Jana ; Kjellström, Erik ; Nikulin, Grigory ; Aalbers, Emma ; Lenderink, Geert ; Christensen, Ole B. ; Boberg, Fredrik ; Sørland, Silje Lund ; Demory, Marie-Estelle ; Bülow, Katharina ; Teichmann, Claas ; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten ; Wulfmeyer, Volker

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<p align=justify>This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO-CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter-model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO-CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.</p>
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