Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

Zeng, Guang ; Mulcahy, Jane P. ; Williams, Jonny ; Teixeira, Joo ; Michou, Martine ; Nabat, Pierre ; Horowitz, Larry W. ; Naik, Vaishali ; Sentman, Lori T. ; Deushi, Makoto ; Bauer, Susanne E. ; Tsigaridis, Kostas ; Shindell, Drew T. ; Kinnison, Douglas E.

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<p align=justify>We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an 'emergent constraint' approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the 'likely' range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.</p>
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