Enhancing tropical cyclone wind forecasts
Bidlot, Jean-Raymond ; Prates, Fernando ; Ribas, Roberto ; Mueller-Quintino, Anna ; Crepulja, Marijana ; Vitart, Frédéric
This article highlights two developments that have enhanced the usefulness of tropical cyclone wind forecasts in ECMWF's newly upgraded Integrated Forecasting System (IFS Cycle 47r1). The first is a change in the model specification for momentum exchange at the sea surface. This development is the result of internal ECMWF work informed by discussions with scientists at Météo-France and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). It goes some way towards resolving the longstanding issue that predicted tropical cyclone maximum surface wind speeds are generally too low, in particular for intense tropical cyclones. The second development is the production of new forecast parameters which specify the maximum distance from the centre of the cyclone to locations where the surface wind speed reaches 34, 50 and 64 knots (wind radii). This will help users to assess the risk of wind-related hazards.</p>
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