Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study

Ruprich-Robert, Yohan ; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo ; Levine, Xavier ; Bellucci, Alessio ; Cassou, Christophe ; Castruccio, Frederic ; Davini, Paolo ; Eade, Rosie ; Gastineau, Guillaume ; Hermanson, Leon ; Hodson, Dan ; Lohmann, Katja ; Lopez-Parages, Jorge ; Monerie, Paul-Arthur ; Nicolì, Dario ; Qasmi, Said ; Roberts, Christopher D. ; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Dunstone, Nick ; Martin-Rey, Marta ; Msadek, Rym ; Robson, Jon ; Smith, Doug ; Tourigny, Etienne

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<p align=justify>Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998-2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength of this link are uncertain. Analyzing a multi-model set of sensitivity experiments, we find that models differ by a factor of 10 in simulating the amplitude of the Equatorial Pacific cooling response to observed AMV warming. The inter-model spread is mainly driven by different amounts of moist static energy injection from the tropical Atlantic surface into the upper troposphere. We reduce this inter-model uncertainty by analytically correcting models for their mean precipitation biases and we quantify that, following an observed 0.26 °C AMV warming, the equatorial Pacific cools by 0.11 °C with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.03 °C.</p>
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