Water Cycle Changes. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Douville, Hervé ; Raghavan, Krishnan ; Renwick, James
This chapter assesses multiple lines of evidence to evaluate past, present and future changes in the global water cycle. It complements material in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 on observed and projected changes in the water cycle, and Chapters 10 and 11 on regional climate change and extreme events. The assessment includes the physical basis for water cycle changes, observed changes in the water cycle and attribution of their causes, future projections and related key uncertainties, and the potential for abrupt change. Paleoclimate evidence, observations, reanalyses and global and regional model simulations are considered. The assessment shows widespread, non-uniform human-caused alterations of the water cycle, which have been obscured by a competition between different drivers across the 20th century and that will be increasingly dominated by greenhouse gas forcing at the global scale.</p>
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