A method of comparing past historical events with deterministic and ensemble forecasts of future extreme events for the benefit of users understanding

Maynard, Karine ; Guillemot, Fabrice

Année de publication
2022
Résumé
<p align="justify">Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. Forecasts and warnings normally focus on physical event characteristics, such as magnitude, spatial extent, and duration of the impending event. However, users frequently express the request to be able to compare these forecast events with those that occurred in the past, in particular those that have marked the memory. Will the next storm be more violent than the previous one, more extensive than the last historic storm? In other words, is it possible to "situate" the predicted event in the "climatology" of past events, allowing everyone to understand the issues in relation to known and shared references? This article aims to describe this "new" way of presenting the forecast. It focuses on two types of high-impact events: Atlantic storms and Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPE).</p>
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