Predicting the forecast impact of potential future observing systems
Prédire l'impact des futurs systèmes d'observation potentiels sur la prévision
Bormann, Niels ; Healy, Sean ; Lean, Katie ; Lonitz, Katrin
ECMWF's weather predictions rely on global weather observations to help determine the initial conditions of forecasts. A key question for the evolution of the global observing system is how much benefit we expect from new observing capabilities. To answer this question, ECMWF is closely working together with space agencies, and we are increasingly using ensemble methods to estimate expected impacts from potential future satellite missions. A key tool is the Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA), which estimates in a statistical sense the expected reduction of uncertainty in the forecast from adding observations to our forecast system. The tool was first used 15 years ago to predict the impact of wind profile observations from the Aeolus satellite mission, which was being planned at the time. It was subsequently applied to gauge the benefit of an increase in available radio occultation data. With both of these observing capabilities becoming a reality in recent years, we are finding that the predictions from many years ago are relevant indicators of the actual impact now obtained. We can also use these new observations to further evaluate the strengths and limitations of the EDA method. Looking again into the future, the EDA method is now being used to assess the value of more passive microwave (MW) sounding observations, demonstrating continued strong benefits from an increase in the number of available MW sounders. The findings help space agencies such as the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) to design an impactful and cost-effective constellation.</p>
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