Scale-dependent verification of precipitation and cloudiness at ECMWF
Vérification des précipitations et de la nébulosité en fonction de l'échelle spatiale au CEPMMT
Lledó, Llorenç ; Haiden, Thomas ; Schröttle, Josef ; Forbes, Richard
As part of ECMWF's continuous efforts to improve the representation of physical processes of the Earth system, an increasing number of km-scale simulations are performed. These activities are supported by the EU's Destination Earth initiative (DestinE), in which ECMWF aims to create a high-resolution digital twin of our planet. Although higher-resolution simulations can improve the prediction of smaller-scale features and increase model fidelity, often the features' exact location cannot be precisely determined. This results in traditional metrics such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) being degraded. Spatial verification techniques can provide a better indication of the value of such forecasts than traditional verification metrics by evaluating if the forecasts have the right statistics over a certain neighbourhood. Such techniques have been used in the limited-area modelling community for some time. In this article we describe how the Fractions Skill Score is being tested at ECMWF as a first step towards a more comprehensive evaluation of performance improvements at high resolution.</p>
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