Predicting the 2023 El Niño event
Prévision de l'épisode El Niño de 2023
Stockdale, Tim
Année de publication
2023
ECMWF forecasts and forecasts provided by the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by ECMWF have been consistent throughout the first half of 2023 in indicating the development of an El Niño event, which is now in progress. The first figure shows how the El Niño might look later this year, and the second figure shows successive ECMWF forecasts for the NINO3.4 region. Despite the accuracy of these forecasts so far, we know that forecasting El Niño is sometimes tricky. What are the uncertainties in our forecast, and how can we assess them?</p>
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