Celebrating winter storm forecasting. Decades of innovation lead to a new foundational paradigm
Novak, David R. ; Perfater, Sarah E. ; Demuth, Julie L. ; Bieda, Stephen W. ; Carbin, Gregory ; Craven, Jeffrey ; Erickson, Michael J. ; Jeglum, Matthew E. ; Kastman, Joshua ; Nelson, James A. ; Rudack, David E. ; Staudenmaier, Michael J. ; Waldstreicher, Jeff S.
Innovations in Winter Storm Forecasting and Decision Support Services
Winter storms are disruptive to society and the economy, and they often cause significant injuries and deaths. Innovations in winter storm forecasting have occurred across the value chain over the past two decades, from physical understanding, to observations, to model forecasts, to postprocessing, to forecaster knowledge and interpretation, to products and services, and ultimately to decision support. These innovations enable more accurate and consistent forecasts, which are increasingly being translated into actionable information for decision-makers. This paper reviews the current state of winter storm forecasting in the context of the U.S. National Weather Service operations and describes a potential future state. Given predictability limitations, a key challenge of winter storm forecasting has been characterizing uncertainty and communicating the forecast in ways that are understandable and useful to decision-makers. To address this challenge, particular focus is placed on establishing a probabilistic framework, with probabilistic hazard information serving as a foundation for winter storm decision support services. The framework is guided by social science research to ensure effective communication of risk to meet users' needs. Solutions to gaps impeding progress in winter storm forecasting are highlighted, including better understanding of mesoscale phenomenon, the need for better ensemble calibration, a rigorous and consistent database of observed impacts, and linking multiparameter probabilities (e.g., probability of intense snowfall rates at rush hour) with users' information needs and decisions.</p>
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