A new time-varying tropospheric aerosol climatology for the IFS
Une nouvelle climatologie des aérosols troposphériques variant dans le temps pour l'IFS
Stockdale, Tim ; Senan, Retish ; Hogan, Robin ; Kipling, Zak ; Flemming, Johannes
Tropospheric aerosol has an important radiative impact on the atmosphere and wider Earth system. In configurations of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) for medium-range and seasonal forecasting, it is represented as a fixed climatology, which was last updated some years ago. The present fixed climatology has two main weaknesses: it is unable to represent the large changes in anthropogenic aerosol that have occurred over recent decades, which have driven changes in the radiative balance relevant for both reanalysis and the calibration of seasonal forecasts; and it is incompatible with the representation of aerosol in the latest configurations of the EU-funded Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), implemented by ECMWF, hampering work to assess the possibility of including interactive aerosols in our configurations for numerical weather prediction (NWP). We have therefore developed a new, decadally-varying climatology of tropospheric aerosol, derived from and compatible with the aerosol modelling used in CAMS, to support and improve our work in core NWP activities and the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by ECMWF. It is driven by the latest versions of emission datasets used in the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6 project, and proposed for CMIP7. This new time-varying climatology is planned for IFS Cycle 49r2, for use in both the forthcoming ERA6 reanalysis and the SEAS6 seasonal forecast upgrade, and subsequently in other NWP configurations.</p>
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