Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
Pistes pour réduire la mauvaise gestion des déchets plastiques et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre à l'échelle mondiale d'ici 2050
Pottinger, A. Samuel ; Geyer, Roland ; Biyani, Nivedita ; Martinez, Ciera C. ; Nathan, Neil ; Morse, Molly R. ; Liu, Chao ; Hu, Shanying ; Bruyn, Magali de ; Boettiger, Carl ; Baker, Elijah ; McCauley, Douglas J.
Année de publication
2024
Plastic production and plastic pollution have a negative effect on our environment, environmental justice, and climate change. Using detailed global and regional plastics datasets coupled with socioeconomic data, we employ machine learning to predict that, without intervention, annual mismanaged plastic waste will nearly double to 121 million metric tonnes (Mt) [100 to 139 Mt 95% confidence interval] by 2050. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic system are projected to grow by 37% to 3.35 billion tonnes CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent (3.09 to 3.54) over the same period. The United Nations plastic pollution treaty presents an opportunity to reshape these outcomes. We simulate eight candidate treaty policies and find that just four could together reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 91% (86 to 98%) and gross plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions by one-third.</div>
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