Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change
Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús ; Díaz, Sandra ; Rifai, Sami W. ; Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier ; Nava-Miranda, Maria Guadalupe ; González-M, Roy ; Hurtado-M, Ana Belén ; Revilla, Norma Salinas ; Vilanova, Emilio ; Almeida, Everton ; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida ; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban ; Alves, Luciana F. ; de Andrade, Ana Cristina Segalin ; Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos ; Vieira, Simone Aparecida ; Aragão, Luiz ; Arets, Eric ; Aymard C., Gerardo A ; Baccaro, Fabrício ; Bakker, Yvonne Vanessa ; Baker, Timothy R. ; Bánki, Olaf ; Baraloto, Christopher ; de Camargo, Plínio Barbosa ; Berenguer, Erika ; Blanc, Lilian ; Bonal, Damien ; Bongers, Frans ; Bordin, Kauane Maiara ; Brienen, Roel ; Brown, Foster ; Prestes, Nayane Cristina C. S. ; Castilho, Carolina V. ; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto ; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho ; Comiskey, James A. ; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo ; Müller, Sandra Cristina ; da Costa Silva, Richarlly ; do Vale, Julio Daniel ; de Andrade Kamimura, Vitor ; de Oliveira Perdiz, Ricardo ; del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon ; Derroire, Géraldine ; Di Fiore, Anthony ; Disney, Mathias ; Farfan-Rios, William ; Fauset, Sophie ; Feldpausch, Ted R. ; Ramos, Rafael Flora ; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores ; Martins, Valéria Forni ; Fortunel, Claire ; Cabrera, Karina Garcia ; Barroso, Jorcely Gonçalves ; Hérault, Bruno ; Herrera, Rafael ; Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N. ; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau ; Pipoly, John J. ; Zanini, Katia Janaina ; Jiménez, Eliana ; Joly, Carlos A. ; Kalamandeen, Michelle ; Klipel, Joice ; Levesley, Aurora ; Oviedo, Wilmar Lopez ; Magnusson, William E. ; dos Santos, Rubens Manoel ; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes ; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur ; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias ; Melo Cruz, Omar Aurelio ; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo ; Morandi, Paulo ; Muscarella, Robert ; Nascimento, Henrique ; Neill, David A. ; Menor, Imma Oliveras ; Palacios, Walter A. ; Palacios-Ramos, Sonia ; Pallqui Camacho, Nadir Carolina ; Pardo, Guido ; Pennington, R. Toby ; de Oliveira Pereira, Luciana ; Pickavance, Georgia ; Picolotto, Rayana Caroline ; Pitman, Nigel C. A. ; Prieto, Adriana ; Quesada, Carlos ; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma ; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime ; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo ; Reyna Huaymacari, José Manuel ; Rodriguez, Carlos Reynel ; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo ; Roopsind, Anand ; Rudas, Agustín ; Salgado Negret, Beatriz ; van der Sande, Masha T. ; Santana, Flávia Delgado ; Maës Santos, Flavio Antonio ; Bergamin, Rodrigo Scarton ; Silman, Miles R. ; Silva, Camila ; Espejo, Javier Silva ; Silveira, Marcos ; Souza, Fernanda Cristina ; Sullivan, Martin J. P. ; Swamy, Varun ; Talbot, Joey ; Terborgh, John J. ; van der Meer, Peter J. ; van der Heijden, Geertje ; van Ulft, Bert ; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez ; Vedovato, Laura ; Vleminckx, Jason ; Vos, Vincent Antoine ; Wortel, Verginia ; Zuidema, Pieter A. ; Zwerts, Joeri A. ; Laurance, Susan G. W. ; Laurance, William F. ; Chave, Jerôme ; Dalling, James W. ; Barlow, Jos ; Poorter, Lourens ; Enquist, Brian J. ; ter Steege, Hans ; Phillips, Oliver L. ; Galbraith, David ; Malhi, Yadvinder
Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.</p>
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